Wednesday, May 9, 2012

Humanities future cannot be predicted: Not even in fictional world



Imagine a universe created around the combination of history, sociology, and mathematical statistics, all done in order to make general predictions about the future behavior of extremely large groups of people. The Foundation Trilogy consists of three books of stories—Foundation, Foundation and Empire, and Second Foundation—that form a history of the future. The events in the trilogy are loosely based on the fall of the Roman Empire, but the trilogy is also about the nature of history itself. The Roman Empire becomes the Galactic Empire, and a sophisticated new science known as psychohistory allows people to predict future events. The sophisticated new science consist of a combination of history, sociology, and mathematical statistics The person that leads the psychohistory movement is Hari Seldon. Hari Seldon uses psychohistory to predict the fall of the Galactic Empire and then establishes the Foundation. The Foundation is a planet of physical scientist, as is the Second Foundation. The ability to predict the future through psychohistory is the key to the Foundation's success. Now this success is against its barbaric neighbors, such as Trantor. Yet the ability is found less in scientific specialists than in common-sense, empirical thinkers such as traders and politicians. There begins to form many problems with traders and politicians. These problems are due to avarice and the greed of many. Psychohistory predicts only the actions of masses of people and deals only in probabilities, so that individual choice still exists. Nor could psychohistory predict the rise of a mutant that would wreak havoc among the Foundations neighbors. Many follow what turned into the Seldon Plan; which are the predictions that Hari Seldon left behind. Yet, they learn that the predictions leave some information to be desired. Hari Seldon’s world was based around psychohistory, and the series as a whole, modeled after the fall of the Roman Empire, yet as the time went by his predictions began to develop many errors, thus demonstrations that humanities future could not be predicted and at the same time demonstrating the gender roles within society.

   Since the  Foundation is loosely based on the Roman Empire, more importantly, the fall. In order to describe the Roman Empire, a glimpse into the event that was framed around the rule of the Etruscan Kings is needed. The Roman Empire is characterized by an autocratic form of government and large territorial holdings in Europe and around the Mediterranean.  The 500-years-old Roman Empire was weakened and subverted through the various civil wars. This is much like the Foundation, which goes through a series of Seldon crises that constantly leave it in a weak state. In 510 B.C, Rome witnessed a revolt against the rule of the Etruscan Kings. Lucius Inius Brutus, the son of Marcus, obtained his wealth illegally by King Tarquin at his death. King Tarquin abused his power to steal Brutus’ inheritance.  Brutus’ older brother had been murdered as part of the plot. Since Brutus’ inheritance was stolen and his brother murdered, Brutus was mocked by a tyrant.  Brutus took revenge and led the city’s nobility in revolt. Prince Sextus fled to Gabii, but was killed. Meanwhile the King with his family escaped to Caere. His palace was demolished. The rebellion against Tarquinius failed to two consuls, although at first they were called praetors. These consuls each held power for one year in which they ruled much like joint Kings of Rome. The first ever two elected leaders of Rome were Brutus and Lecius Tarquin Collatinus. The people turned against Brutus’ colleague who was a Tarquin and hence directly related to the despised King.   It was not long before he was left as exiled, being replaced by Publius Valerius Publicola. Soon after the plot was discovered, the aim of which was to place King Tarquin back on his throne. The conspirators were sentence to death. This small glimpse into The Roman Empires history, has many similarities with the Mayor of Terminus City, Salvor Hardin. He proposes to play the planets off against each other.

          This also gives a small glimpse of what gender roles within the Roman empire and The Foundation, are like. The fact that within the small story of the Roman Empire there are only men mentioned, demonstrates that women did not have power within the empire. Men are portrayed as the dominant gender and the ones that rule the empire. Very similar to the Foundation.  His plan is a success, the Foundation remains untouched and he is promoted to Mayor of Terminus. Using its scientific advantage, Terminus develops trade routes with nearby planets, eventually taking them over when its technology becomes a much-needed commodity. The interplanetary traders effectively become the new diplomats to other planets. Isaac Asimov's reference to the Roman Empire is seen in the following quote. "Hardin raised his voice to be heard above the clamor. 'We are a young world, your eminence in our short history we have had but few members of the higher nobility visiting our poor planet. Hence our enthusiasm !' "(Asimov 65)   Salvor Hardin is the first Mayor of Terminus, and he is portrayed as a shrewd and ruthless politician. In the quote above we see a small glimpse of the comparison between Roman Emperors and the characters in The Foundation series.  We see the violent side to Hardin as he "raised his voice" and creates an almost fragile façade, emphasized by the use of alliterations in "poor planet." The use of alliteration emphasizes the "ppp" sound one created by what can be related to a bickering, teary eyed, child. Making this reference conveys a need to nurture or help out Hardin. Another quote in which we see Hardin's true side surface is in the following: "Hardin banged his hand on the chair with sudden violence. ' Let me speak, Sutt. Your eminence, I don't care about a rusty half-credit coin for Anacreon Smyrono, or all your local politics and petty wars.' " (Asimov 61) Here we see the use of alliteration in "Hardin banged his hand" emphasizing his violent side, via the "hhh" sound that almost sounds like a swarm of bees or an angry cat. The fact that he "banged his hand" with "sudden violence" demonstrates that Hardin pretends to be a kind almost peaceful man, yet his behavior is considered "sudden" since it is not viewed from Hardin's point of view, but rather Asimov's. We see Hardin's hunger for power in the statement he makes; "and Hardin said ingenuously. 'Could Anacreon supply our nuclear-power plant?' " (Asimov 65) The fact that it is emphasized that Hardin said it "ingenuously" demonstrates that he in fact is pretending, that is also conveyed by the alliteration in "power plant," causing the "ppp" sound that sounds almost like a sad child in need of comfort. Then Pirenne states in respond; "And may I ask what you meant by blowing off your mouth about our nuclear-power plant ? Why, it's just the thing that would make us a military target.' " (Asimov 65) The use of alliteration in "by blowing" focuses on the "bbb" sound that conveys the sense of disagreement.  The alliteration in "the thing that" emphasizes the "ttt," almost like a ticking bomb, that shows Pirenne's anger. " 'Yes' grinned Hardin, ' a military target to stay away from. Isn't it obvious why I brought the subject up? Anacreon no longer has a nuclear- power economy. If they had, our friend would undoubtedly have realized that plutonium, except in ancient tradition, is not used in power plant. Back to oil and coal, are they? He murmured.' " (Asimov 65) Hardin's grin and his pleasure in discovering that Anacreon no longer has nuclear power, further emphasizes his greed. Hardin's sarcasm further demonstrates that he is two faced by calling Anacreon a "friend" while Hardin just wanted to discard Anacreon as a threat; while he ironically states "back to oil and coal are they?"  Via the discovery of Hardin's true "face" we make a direct reference to the King who took Brutus' inheritance and then killed his brother.  Brutus is one of the most famous names in the Roman Empires history. Thus further emphasizing the lack of predictability of the human race. Even as The Foundation Series is modeled after the Roman Empire, Seldon fails to predict The Foundation's fate. Even though he left pre-recorded holograms at the climax of each crises, he failed to predict The Foundation's main problems. Seldon, before his death, used psychohistory to predict and manipulate each event, yet failed, further proving that the human race is far too diverse to be predicable. Also the gender roles within The Foundation. There are very obvious gender roles, such as the power hungry men. These are characteristics of the ideology that gender has socialized into young boys.

                     The accuracy of his predictions are well proven by the events since then, and during the first crises his predictions went with full accuracy. The Foundation owed its prosperity to Seldon's predictions. Yet as the other crises came, Seldon's predictions began to leave details to be desired. As Seldon's predictions began to omit crucial information about the crises that came, the Foundation's leaders began to panic. This fear and panic was produced by the failure in the complete faith in Hari Seldon's predictions and calculations. Minor changes in the manner in which events unfolded would have been easily overcome, yet when one of the worst and most powerful crises the Foundation had faced was not predicted by Hari Seldon, the Foundation went ballistic. This great foe, brought down not only the Foundation, but also the great Trantor. The Mule is one of the greatest conquerors the galaxy has ever seen, he is a mentalic who has the ability to reach into to reach into the minds of others and "adjust" their emotions. The Mule's ability has the capability to forcibly enlist them to his cause. Individuals who have their emotions adjusted to behave otherwise normally, that is with their logic, memories and personality intact; even if they are aware of the manipulation, their ability to desire to resist it has just  been adjusted. This gives the Mule the capacity to disrupt Seldon's plan. The mule does so via the invalidation of Seldon's assumption, that no single individual could have a measurable effect on galactic socio-historical trends on their own, due to the plan relying on the predictability of action of very large numbers of people.  Since the Foundation, after the end of the Empire, is the sole supplier of nuclear weaponry in the galaxy, and using this asset, the Mule begins rapidly conquering surrounding territories, all of which lack nuclear power, sweeping aside the remnants of the Galactic Empire centered around Neotrantor. The Mule's conquest is amazingly fast. The Mule defeats the Foundation and establishes the Union of Worlds after only about five years.  Then just as suddenly he stops his advance and settles into a five year period of consolidation. This is done so because the Mule fears the mysterious Second Foundation. The Second Foundation is rumored to be capable of defeating a mentalic individual like himself. According to a hint that was given by Hari Seldon, the Second Foundation was founded at the opposite of the galaxy, from the first foundation, which itself founded on the distant galactic rim of planet Terminus. However the true location of the Second Foundation is a total mystery and popular sentiment is that it does not exist. Nevertheless, the Mule launches repeated expeditions in search of the Second Foundation during this period of consolidation. The Mule is a male figure that has the ultimate power in the universe. The Mule is all powerful thus conveying gender roles.

          Very much like the Roman Empire, The Foundation, also displays gender issues, such as the marginalization of women. The perception of women as the weaker gender, plays a vital role in the Foundations series. All the major characters within the Foundation series are all men, with the exception of one woman; Bayta. Bayta is not introduced until the second book, Foundation and Empire, even so she is not introduced until the second part of the book. At first she is displayed as a strong woman. Of course that image quickly changes, as Toran, her husband, states "I know Bay- it isn't exactly a proper change, is it? I mean from the Foundation to this." (Asimov 103) Bayta then replays, "a horrible change, Toran I should never have married you." (Asimov 103) Her strength is then demonstrated in his reaction as "his face looked momentarily hurt, before he caught himself, she said with her special 'cozy' tone, 'all right, silly, now let your lower lip droop and give me that special dying-duck look- the one just before you're supposed to bury your head on my shoulder, while I stroke your hair.' "(Asimov 103) In these quotes we note that Bayta is forced by Toran to move from The Foundation to a different and unwanted place. Here the shift in the gender role changes as he calls her "Bay" instead of saying her full name which is not long just two letters more, and she calls him by his full name. Bayta does not say what Toran wants her to say and is "momentarily hurt" by her disrespect. Bayta then mocks him and compares him to a "dying- duck" further emphasized by the alliteration, causing the "ddd" sound, used to draw attention to Bayta's argument. Bayta suggest that he "bury" his "head on her shoulder" as she then will take the role of the male, that society depicted as the dominant gender, as she comforts him in Toran's moment of weakness. She then "pointed a finger at him and snatched it away an instant before his teeth closed upon it."(Asimov 1903) This quote states that a woman that shows "disobedience" and mocks a man is replayed with violence, as "his teeth closed upon it" showing that after what Bayta said to him, he must then regain his masculinity by trying to hurt Bayta. Toran then states in replay, "if I surrender and admit you're right, will you prepare dinner?" (Asimov 103) Toran regains his masculinity and gender role by making her cook dinner, further demonstrating to Bayta what her role must be as society has stated. Now Bayta has a more significant status then Toran, because she is a relative of Mallow, were as Toran is "provincial- and not merely a provincial, but the son of a renegade Trader."(Asimov 110) It is clear that Toran is not of a high status. Toran takes great pride in the fact that he gains power from Bayta's status. This point is demonstrated when the following is stated:  "there was quite a bit of smugness about his attitude towards Bayta- the satisfied awe that marks the triumph of someone who has been hovering at the edge of an inferiority complex for three years.(Asimov 110) This conveys that Toran is using Bayta's "power" to heighten his status and masculinity furthering his gender role as the strong man. As the chapter progresses Bayta loses the strength demonstrated in when she was first introduced, as Toran's father has "his eyes on Bayta now and didn't leave. He spoke to her more softly."(Asimov 114) This addresses a sexist comment that states that a woman should be spoken "softly" to since they are perceived as the weak and sensitive gender. Fran, Toran's father then states after: "you can always tell a woman's weight by her upper arm."(Asimov 114) This adds to the image that women are suppose to me small and thin almost the size of their arm.

Throughout all these events that unfolded in the course of fifty to seventy years, what is most alarming is that the great mastermind, Hari Seldon, was unable to predict such events. This makes the assertions that the future of the human race cannot be predicted, not even by the great psychohistorian. Even though the Foundation was modeled after the Roman Empire, Asimov did not accommodate gender in his series. The sexism that existed within the Roman Empire, remained the same within the series. This provides the idea that the human race can only predict a small insight of what the future holds for them. When a mutant threatens to destroy the greatest planets every to have been created, the leaders of the Foundations are perplexed by the inability to come up and conquer there crisis. Hari Seldon had made accurate predictions, yet as more crises began to surface, Hari Seldon was more and more inaccurate.